Ravens’ trend of late-game collapses could threaten another promising season (2024)

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If the cause could be attributed to just one thing, you’d expect the Baltimore Ravens would have fixed it by now and put an end to a maddening trend that’s threatening another promising season.

The Ravens have not been a good fourth-quarter team and have struggled to hold late leads. That disturbing characteristic for a team with Super Bowl aspirations was on full display again Sunday when Baltimore squandered a two-touchdown lead over the last nine minutes and allowed the Cleveland Browns to score the game’s final 16 points in a 33-31 loss.

Baltimore didn’t trail Sunday until Dustin Hopkins’ 40-yard field goal sailed through the uprights with no time on the clock. Through 10 games, the Ravens have trailed for just 28 minutes, 48 seconds. Yet, they are 7-3. According to NFL Research, the only two teams over the past 40 years to trail for less amount of time through 10 games were the 1984 Miami Dolphins and 1998 Denver Broncos. Both were 10-0 at this point.

The Ravens’ issues, though, aren’t a new phenomenon. Closing games was a problem last season for John Harbaugh’s team, and has been to varying degrees in the past. In seven of their last 10 losses, the Ravens have blown two-possession leads. They’ve lost nine games since 2021 in which they’ve taken a seven-plus-point lead into the final quarter.

But losses like Sunday’s to a divisional rival are always good to trigger a new round of finger-pointing. Really, there is plenty of it to go around.

Lamar Jackson and the offense have been mistake-prone and not very clutch in the fourth quarter since the start of last year. This season, Jackson is completing 62.5 percent of his passes in the fourth quarter and has thrown as many interceptions (two) as touchdown passes, while getting sacked seven times. His fourth-quarter quarterback rating this year is 82.5, his lowest of any quarter. His fourth-quarter rating last season was 72.5, also his lowest.

In 22 games since the start of last year, Jackson has committed eight fourth-quarter turnovers (five interceptions, three fumbles). During that span, he’s had one turnover for every 23 fourth-quarter plays, per TruMedia. Only Justin Fields and Davis Webb have a worse fourth-quarter turnover rate among qualifying quarterbacks.

Defensively, the Ravens have struggled to get fourth-quarter stops, including in games where they’ve been dominant through the first 45 minutes. This year, they’ve allowed 75 points in either the fourth quarter or overtime after only allowing 82 points combined over the first three quarters. On average, their 7.5 points per game allowed in the fourth quarter is the third most in the NFL, better than only the Indianapolis Colts (8.1) and the one-win Carolina Panthers (8.3).

The Ravens’ second-ranked defense had three chances to get one stop in the third and fourth quarters Sunday that would have pretty much iced the game, and it failed each time. For a group that talks often about finishing games on its terms, the defense has struggled to do that.

Then, there’s the coaching aspect of it. Let’s face it, it starts there. It has to. This is Harbaugh’s team, after all, and he regularly preaches toughness, grit and composure. The Ravens have too often in recent years been lacking in multiple areas in crunch time.

You can debate a fourth-down or two-point decision by Harbaugh here or there, but it goes beyond that. Whether it’s a certain play call or coaching decision, Harbaugh and his staff haven’t yet had the answers to break the troubling trend. They need to find them before it’s too late. This Ravens team is too talented to continue to drop games it has no business losing.

“We look at the football. You don’t have time to dig into the psychology, if that’s what you’re asking me, for the root causes,” Harbaugh said Monday. “Maybe there is some historical reason for it. I’m not exactly sure, but we’re just looking at the football. We fix the football. That’s what we’re doing. Our guys are good about that. We have a very honest culture, a very straightforward culture. We don’t gloss anything over. We all look at ourselves. We’re in a partnership, that’s how we look at it.”

The curious Keaton Mitchell usage

There was a clear effort made in the first half to get the ball to rookie running back Keaton Mitchell. On the Ravens’ first offensive possession, he took a handoff 39 yards for a touchdown. On the second drive, Mitchell caught a screen pass for 32 yards. Three plays later, Jackson tried to hit Mitchell on a wheel route but the pass fell incomplete. Mitchell got the ball on a reverse in the second quarter and lost 7 yards.

.@_KeatonMitchell picking up where he left off❗❗❗

Tune in on FOX pic.twitter.com/8QaaVoimv3

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) November 12, 2023

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Over the final 33-plus minutes, Mitchell got one total touch and no targets. He had a 2-yard run with two minutes left in the third quarter. There was another run-pass option where Mitchell appeared to have plenty of green grass on the outside, but Jackson kept the ball. That was it. Harbaugh didn’t have an answer for it after the game, saying, “It’s just kind of the way it went as far as the play calling. It wasn’t a part of the plan or anything like that.”

Harbaugh wasn’t going to throw offensive coordinator Todd Monken under the bus. That’s not his way, particularly not right after the game before he had time to review the tape. A day later, Harbaugh acknowledged that Mitchell should have been more involved. He attributed it to the coaching staff still learning about a young player and not wanting to give him more than he could handle.

Any way you look at it, there’s no reason for Mitchell, who is the fastest and freshest skill position player the Ravens have, to touch the ball only once in the second half.

10 random thoughts, observations

1. Ravens rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers had a solid game with five catches for 73 yards, but it could have been even better. Flowers got behind the Browns defense in the second quarter for what should have been six, but Jackson, who did well to recognize the blitz, overthrew him by a couple of yards. Jackson needs to start hitting on a few of these deep balls. According to NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Jackson is 3-for-13 for 89 yards and an interception on deep throws since Week 6, with a 12.7 percent completion percentage under expected.

2. It’s fair to ask whether the Ravens need to make a difficult decision in regard to Marcus Williams. The veteran safety continues to gut it out and play through a torn pectoral muscle. Yet, it continues to be clear that Williams is essentially playing and trying to tackle with one arm. Browns tight end David Njoku took advantage of a one-armed tackle attempt at least once. On a few other plays, it appeared Williams was running parallel to the ball carrier to try to get an angle, where he’d be able to make a tackle without using his left arm.

There’s also the matter of Williams’ return taking either Geno Stone or Arthur Maulet off the field, because it leads to Kyle Hamilton sliding into the nickel role. Both Stone and Maulet have been key to the success of Baltimore’s pass defense. Williams is a team leader and a defensive playmaker when he’s right. He wants to be on the field. That’s commendable. But Harbaugh and the coaching staff need to decide whether that’s the best thing for the team. It didn’t appear to be Sunday. On Monday, Harbaugh backed Williams and said he expects him to get more and more comfortable.

3. It’s hard to point fingers when you don’t know the exact defensive play call and the responsibilities of each player on said call. Sunday’s defensive meltdown was odd because the Ravens had been good in the middle of the field all year. Harbaugh blamed the team’s struggles on “specific zone coverages (and) split safety coverages” that were not played correctly. The Browns had receivers and tight ends open all afternoon. The question is: Why was it suddenly a problem on Sunday?

4. Another surprise about Baltimore’s defensive effort is how easily it allowed Deshaun Watson to get out of the pocket and pick up yards with his legs or by throwing on the run. The players said it was a defensive focus in practice last week, and yet, it repeatedly was a problem. The Ravens’ defensive front has been unselfish and disciplined with how they’ve rushed and stayed in their lanes. It was anything but those things on Sunday.

5. Two biggest plays of the game: On the first one, the Ravens had a 31-17 lead following Gus Edwards’ touchdown. Justin Madubuike sacked Watson on the next play from scrimmage, setting up a second-and-15. Watson then found Amari Cooper for 25 yards. Five plays and two minutes later, the Browns scored. The second one: The Ravens had a 31-30 lead and Odafe Oweh sacked Watson to create a second-and-19 on Cleveland’s 22. Watson then hit Cooper for 17 yards. Five plays and one kneeldown earlier, Hopkins kicked the game-winning field goal. Baltimore’s defense has to get off the field in both spots.

6. You can’t pin the Browns’ blocked field goal on Justin Tucker. You can chalk it up as another costly special teams miscue in a season where there have already been too many. Not only did the block of the 55-yard attempt take away three points for the Ravens, but Browns linebacker Anthony Walker Jr. returned the block to the Baltimore 38, ultimately setting up a field goal for Cleveland. That’s a notable swing in a close game. The Ravens getting kicks or punts blocked had been relatively rare. They’ve already had a field goal, extra point and a punt blocked with seven games to go. That can’t happen. As for Tucker, he’s missed four field goals, all from 50-plus yards. He’s only missed four or more field goals in four of his previous 11 seasons.

Jordan with the SWAT and A-Walk puts us in good field position 🙏#CLEvsBAL on FOX & NFL+ pic.twitter.com/BmPGKK4iCH

— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) November 12, 2023

7. I don’t know what to make about that delay of game penalty on the Ravens’ last offensive drive that turned a third-and-9 into third-and-14. Jackson clearly thought the play clock would be reset because it took a while to spot the ball after both the Ravens’ Kevin Zeitler and the Browns’ Za’Darius Smith were shaken up. Jackson pleaded his case to head referee Land Clark. Who knows whether the Ravens would have converted without the penalty, but third-and-14 made it much more difficult.

8. Whether he felt Cedric Tillman should have been flagged for a blind-side block or taunting by standing over him, Ravens outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy has been around the league long enough to know you’re not going to get away with retaliating with a referee standing nearby.

9. Harbaugh didn’t give a definitive timeline for the returns of left tackle Ronnie Stanley (knee sprain) and cornerback Marlon Humphrey (calf strain). For now, both players are said to be week to week, which is certainly more encouraging than what it appeared on Sunday. Humphrey went down with a non-contact injury and Stanley was rolled up on and repeatedly punched the ground in pain. This is where the Ravens’ schedule works in their favor. After Thursday, they have just one game (Nov. 26 at the Los Angeles Chargers) in 23 days. As tough as it would be to lose Humphrey and Stanley for matchups against the Cincinnati Bengals and Chargers, potentially getting them back for the final four or five regular-season games would be a nice boost.

10. A return of right tackle Morgan Moses could be significant this week. The Ravens’ offensive line struggled against the Browns, and with Stanley potentially out Thursday, offensive tackle depth could quickly become a problem.

(Photo of John Harbaugh: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)